NOEN FÅ EKSEMPLER PÅ LEVEL 1-STUDIER (FULLT FAGFELLEVURDERTE) SOM VISER AT MIDDELALDEREN VAR VARMERE ENN NÅTIDEN - OGSÅ GLOBALT
IPCC-miljøet har - etter at man i FAR/1990 "uheldigvis" la ut en graf som viste en varmere middelalder enn nåtid, som CO2-skeptikere så begynte å bruke som kraftig hypotesekritikk - prøvd på ulike måter å svekke denne innledende egenpåstand om at middelalderen var både varmere enn nåtiden, og at varmen var global. Løsningen har vært rent datajuks for å skjule relative varmeforhold (jfr. Manns Yamal-tre der grafer ble snudd opp-ned for å få fram ønsket trend, osv.) samt oppkok av obskure, kreative data fra områder i verden som vanskelig lar seg etterprøve. Eksemplene er legio og trengs ikke gjentas enda en gang.
Men la oss i alle fall gjenta at prosessen ble sterkt forsert da Jones, Mann, og til dels Briffa hadde sine mest aktive "fornekterår" i perioden 1998-2001, og stod fram både med at nåtiden er varmere enn alle nyere varmeperioder inkl. MWP, jfr. Jones et al (1998); Mann et al (1999); Crowley & Lowery (2000); Briffa (2000), Briffa et al. (2001); Jones et al. (2001).
Kullmann (2013) leverte som kjent en bekreftelse på at holocene var svært mye varmere enn nåtiden i Skandinavia (som heller ikke akkurat styrker CO2-hypotesen), men denne varmeperioden er vel ikke omdiskutert.
Jeg skal derfor ta for meg alle verdensdeler, på Level 1-nivå, med noen eksempler på level 1-studier som konkret hevder varmere WMP enn nåtid.
Europa er vel det best kjente området for WMP, siden kildegrunnlaget og historisk dokumentasjon rent generelt er overveldende større enn for andre verdensdeler. Argumentet fra IPCC-leiren har derfor vært at joda, Europa var mange steder meget varm, men globalt derimot.....
Vi kan likevel ta med en fra Norge for kuriositetens skyld, før vi begynner på resten av verden:
Vardø og Svalbard
Divine, D., Isaksson, E., Martma, T., Meijer, H.A.J., Moore, J., Pohjola, V., van de Wal, R.S.W. and Godtliebsen, F. 2011.
Thousand years of winter surface air temperature variations in Svalbard and northern Norway reconstructed from ice-core data.
Polar Research 30: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.7379, sitat:
Working with ice cores extracted from Svalbard at Lomonosovfonna in 1997 and at Holtedahlfonna in 2005, Divine et al. used the δ18O data derived from them to reconstruct a 1200-year winter (DecJanFeb) surface air temperature history for Vardø (70.54°N, 30.61°E) in northern Norway by calibrating (scaling) the δ18O data to corresponding historically-observed temperatures at that location. And as may be seen from the figure below, the 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature of the Medieval Warm Period was approximately 3.3°C greater than the end-of-record 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature.
Polar Ural Mountains, Russia
Mazepa, V.S. 2005. Stand density in the last millennium at the upper tree-line ecotone in the Polar Ural Mountains. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2082-2091, sitat:
Over the period 1999-2001, the author examined evidence related to historical tree growth dynamics along a continuous altitudinal transect 860 meters long and 40-80 meters wide on the eastern slope of the Polar Ural Mountains (66°48'57"N, 65°34'09"E). This work revealed that "a large number of well-preserved tree remains can be found up to 60-80 meters above the current tree line, some dating to as early as a maximum of 1300 years ago," and that "the earliest distinct maximum in stand density occurred in the 11th to 13th centuries, coincident with Medieval climatic warming." Since Marzepa cites many studies that conclude that "increases in tree-line elevation, and associated increases in tree abundance within the transient tree-line ecotone, are associated with extended warm periods," and that "the vertical gradient of summer air temperature in the Polar Urals is 0.7°C/100 m," we conclude that the Medieval Warm Period lasted from approximately AD 700 to 1300 and that significant portions of it were as much as 0.56°C warmer than the Current Warm Period.
Denne studien setter Mann et als forsøk på utglatting av temperaturforskjellene mellom MWP og LIA i et grelt lys:
Fleitmann et al. 2016: Milandre Cave, Canton Jura, NW Switzerland
METHODS: Speleothem-based oxygen isotope (d18O) record as cold season temperature proxy
RESULTS: Warm Medieval Climate Anomaly. From abstract: “The M6 δ18O record unveils temperature variations of up to 2°C during the last two millennia, with the temperature difference between the warmest decade of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) and the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age (1400-1700 CE) amounting to ~1.7°C. In general, higher cold season temperatures prevailed between 450 and 600 CE and 1000 and1150 CE.”
Denne studien peker på samme problematikk:
Filippi et al 1999: Core C19c, Lake Neuchatel
METHODS: oxygen and carbon isotopes from bulk carbonate and ostracods
RESULTS: Warm period ca. 700-1300 AD, followed by colder climate of Little Ice Age. From conclusions: “The parallel decrease in isotopic d18O ratios for both bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite between ca 1300 and 1500 AD is interpreted as related to a change in the lake water isotopic composition, for which we postulate a decrease in the mean annual air temperature of about 1–1.5°C accompanying the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age.“
Slik disse to rapportene hevder, slik så det også ut i de to første IPCC-rapportene, hvorpå historieredigeringen begynte for alvor.
En betydelig del av østlige Kina
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Fang, X., Man, Z., Zhang, X., Zhang, P. and Wang, W.-C. 2003. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene 13: 933-940, sitat:
Working with 200 different sets of phenological and meteorological records extracted from a number of historical sources, Ge et al. produced a 2000-year history of winter half-year temperature (October to April) for the region of China bounded by latitudes 27 and 40°N and longitudes 107 and 120°E. This effort revealed that following the Dark Ages Cold Period, "temperature entered a warm epoch from the AD 570s to 1310s," when peak warmth "was about 0.3-0.6°C higher than present for 30-year periods, but over 0.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis," after which the cooling that led to the Little Ice Age commenced. Most recently, Ge et al. report that "temperature has been rising rapidly during the twentieth century, especially for the period 1981-99." However, they find that the current mean temperature is only "0.5°C higher than for 1951-80." Hence, it can be appreciated that for the big chunk of China Ge et al. studied, the 10-year-mean peak MWP warmth was approximately 0.4°C higher than today's peak warmth.
Solomina et al 2016: Northern Caucasus (Georgia)
METHODS: Archeological, palynological, geochemical and pedological data
RESULTS: Warm and dry phase 800-1300 AD which traditionally is referred to as the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”. Glaciers were receding. Temperatures were at least as warm as today
Razjigaeva et al. 2013: Kuril Islands (utenfor Japan)
METHODS: Palynology and diatoms in peat-bogs, tephra-soil and soil-eolian sequences, paleolake sediments, and marine terrace deposits)
RESULTS: Slight warming during Medieval Climate Anomaly. From text: “Given this vegetation, we can assume that mean annual temperature increased insignificantly, and that the sum of active temperatures possibly exceeded modern by 1,50-1,80°C. The warming here was less pronounced than it was in continental regions of the South Far East, where the average temperatures deviations compared to modern was ca. 1°C (Korotky et al., 2005; Velichko, 2010).”
Cold Air Cave, Makapansgat Valley of South Africa
Tyson, P.D., Karlen, W., Holmgren, K. and Heiss, G.A. 2000. The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Africa. South African Journal of Science 96: 121-126, sitat:
Maximum annual air temperatures in the vicinity of Cold Air Cave (24°1'S, 29°11'E) in the Makapansgat Valley of South Africa were inferred from a relationship between color variations in banded growth-layer laminations of a well-dated stalagmite and the air temperature of a surrounding 49-station climatological network developed over the period 1981-1995, as well as from a quasi-decadal-resolution record of oxygen and carbon stable isotopes.
The Medieval Warm Period (AD 1000-1325) was as much as 3-4°C warmer than the Current Warm Period (AD 1961-1990 mean).
Rein B., Lückge, A., Reinhardt, L., Sirocko, F., Wolf, A. and Dullo, W.-C. 2005. El Niño variability off Peru during the last 20,000 years. Paleoceanography 20: 10.1029/2004PA001099, sitat:
The authors derived sea surface temperatures from alkenones extracted from a high-resolution marine sediment core retrieved off the coast of Peru (12.05°S, 77.66°W), spanning the past 20,000 years and ending in the 1960s. From their Figure 11, adapted below, it can be seen that the warmest temperatures of this 20,000 year period (~23.2°C) occurred during the late Medieval time (AD 800-1250). Taking this value, 23.2°C, and comparing it with the modern monthly long-term means in sea surface temperature, which the authors characterize as between 15°C and 22°C, we estimate the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period for this region was about 1.2°C above that of the Current Warm Period.
Lake WB02, Northern Victoria Island, Nanavut, Canada
Fortin, M.-C. and Gajewski, K. 2010. Holocene climate change and its effect on lake ecosystem production on Northern Victoria island, Canadian Arctic. Journal of Paleolimnology 43: 219-234, sitat:
Working with two replicate sediment cores extracted from the central point of Lake WB02 in the Wynniatt Bay region of Canada's Northern Victoria Island (72.29°N, 109.87°W), which were collected in June of 1997, the authors developed an 8,000-year history of the area's mean July air temperature, based upon the modern analogue technique (MAT) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WAPLS) regression, utilizing chironomid species assemblage data. As best we can determine from their graphical results, late-Holocene temperatures peaked about 1100 years ago in both reconstructions, at values that were (1) approximately 3.8°C warmer than the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period (CWP), which occurs at the end of their record in the AD 1990s in their MAT analysis, and (2) approximately 1.0°C warmer than the peak temperature of the CWP, which also occurs at the end of their record in their WAPLS analysis. Thus, we have two separate results for Lake WB02: MWP 3.8°C > CWP, and MWP 1.0°C > CWP. And we assign the MWP to the period AD 1050-1150, following our protocol which states that "in extremely rare cases where only a single year is specified for the MWP, we assign it a 100-year timespan centered on the year reported by the study's authors."
Slik kan man fortsette, med enda flere regioner verden rundt, med hundrevis av Level1-studier som alle setter IPCC i en ynkelig skammekrok for banalt forskningsjuks. At dette vitenskapsmisbruket - av både penger og forskere - ikke er stoppet for lengst skyldes kun den overveldende institusjonelle makten IPCC er tildelt som FNs globale "klimaindustriforvalter".