Author Topic: DET ER SOLEN!  (Read 80093 times)

Energisk

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Re: DET ER SOLEN!
« Reply #300 on: 20.12.2019, 20:51:18 »
Enig i det. Men spørsmålet er likevel  : På hvilken måte justerer man rådataene for DTR. Det synes å være en annen metode for data før 1950 i forhold til senere. Men jeg skjønte ikke metoden.

PetterT

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Re: DET ER SOLEN!
« Reply #301 on: 21.12.2019, 12:23:59 »
Det synes temmelig klart at årsaksforholdene er temmelig sammensatte. UHI problematikken skulle være enkel å utelukke, det finnes jo en rekke værstasjoner som ikke har dette problemet. Og antallet av disse øker, Met har for lengst begynt å etablere rene klimastasjoner som er satt opp på steder der en kan utelukke UHI og annen forurensning. Jeg mener NOAA har gjort det samme.


Det er nettopp det Soon et al. har gjort.
https://globalwarmingsolved.com/data_files/SCC2015_preprint.pdf
Det er tanken som teller :-)

PetterT

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Re: DET ER SOLEN!
« Reply #302 on: 28.01.2020, 19:47:13 »
Usikker på om det er informert om denne her tidligere.

Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale
V. V. Zharkova , S. J. Shepherd, S. I. Zharkov & E. Popova 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

Abstract
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

Altså TSI øking på 1 - 1,5 W/m2 siden Maunder minimum (Lille Istid), mens IPCC oppgir 0,1 W/m2.  Taler for seg selv.
Det er tanken som teller :-)

PetterT

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Re: DET ER SOLEN!
« Reply #303 on: 02.03.2020, 16:01:21 »
Kortbølget solinnstråling til jordoverflaten har økt mer enn langbølget utstråling på grunn av mindre skydekke siden 1980-tallet, og det forklarer den siste tids "katastrofale" globale oppvarming og "klimakrise". 
Det er solen og skyer, ikke AGW.

New Study Asserts Cloud Cover Changes Drove The Post-1980s Solar Radiation Increase Important To Recent Warming
https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/02/new-study-asserts-cloud-cover-changes-drove-the-post-1980s-solar-radiation-increase-important-to-recent-warming/

Using NASA’s MERRA-2 radiation data, scientists find shortwave radiation (SW) has been rising since the 1980s. The SW increase has been larger and faster than longwave radiation (LW) changes during this same timespan. Cloud variability has been the “main driver” of these trends.

Clouds are “showing a declining trend” from 1984-2014. Fewer clouds means less SW radiation is reflected to space and more is absorbed by the Earth’s surface.

Analyzing changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using MERRA-2 radiation data
by Alfonso Delgado-Bonal, Alexander Marshak, Yuekui Yang & Daniel Holdaway
Nature Scientific Reports 10, Article number: 922 (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-57917-8

Our research supports the idea that clouds and albedo, which ultimately determine the SW radiation, are variables of the utmost importance for current climate change, in agreement with previous research about the changes in stratocumulus or energy imbalance in the last four decades for example.
Det er tanken som teller :-)

Water

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Re: DET ER SOLEN!
« Reply #304 on: 02.03.2020, 18:23:30 »
Kortbølget solinnstråling til jordoverflaten har økt mer enn langbølget utstråling på grunn av mindre skydekke siden 1980-tallet, og det forklarer den siste tids "katastrofale" globale oppvarming og "klimakrise". 
Det er solen og skyer, ikke AGW.

New Study Asserts Cloud Cover Changes Drove The Post-1980s Solar Radiation Increase Important To Recent Warming
https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/02/new-study-asserts-cloud-cover-changes-drove-the-post-1980s-solar-radiation-increase-important-to-recent-warming/

Using NASA’s MERRA-2 radiation data, scientists find shortwave radiation (SW) has been rising since the 1980s. The SW increase has been larger and faster than longwave radiation (LW) changes during this same timespan. Cloud variability has been the “main driver” of these trends.

Clouds are “showing a declining trend” from 1984-2014. Fewer clouds means less SW radiation is reflected to space and more is absorbed by the Earth’s surface.

Analyzing changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using MERRA-2 radiation data
by Alfonso Delgado-Bonal, Alexander Marshak, Yuekui Yang & Daniel Holdaway
Nature Scientific Reports 10, Article number: 922 (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-57917-8

Our research supports the idea that clouds and albedo, which ultimately determine the SW radiation, are variables of the utmost importance for current climate change, in agreement with previous research about the changes in stratocumulus or energy imbalance in the last four decades for example.

Da er det bare å vente på store oppslag i NRK, Aftenposten, TV2, VG, Dagbladet etc  ;)

PetterT

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Re: DET ER SOLEN! og skyene
« Reply #305 on: 16.03.2020, 22:41:42 »
Solen gir basisoppvarming og skyene bidrar til variasjon.
Usikkerheten i å anslå skyenes virkning er 870 ganger større enn en antatt teoretisk virkning av CO2.  Det er dermed ikke mulig å detektere virkningen av CO2.

Uncertainty In Natural Climate Forcing Is 870 Times Larger Than CO2 Forcing – A CO2 Signal Is Thus Not Detectable
https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/16/uncertainty-in-natural-climate-forcing-is-870-times-larger-than-co2-forcing-a-co2-signal-is-thus-not-detectable/

Clouds regulate Earth’s climate. New studies suggest uncertainty in clouds’ surface radiative effects reach 17.4 W/m² per year (±8.7 W/m²/year). Total CO2 climate forcing is said to be just 0.02 W/m² per year. The difference in these magnitudes preclude detection of a CO2 signal in climate forcing.

Det er tanken som teller :-)