Hundrevis nye studier svekker IPCCs troverdighet #1: Upålitelige måledata

[Telehiv]

Dette er første del av en serie henvisninger til en rekke nye studier som imøtegår IPCCs sentrale dogmer rundt AGW/CO2-hypotesen og tilhørende konsekvenspåstander.

Her vises til nye studier som påpeker en betydelig måledataproblematikk i datasettene som brukes til å definere klodens temperaturutvikling:

Extraction of the global absolute temperature for Northern Hemisphere using a set of 6190 meteorological stations from 1800 to 2013

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682615000577

Dette er en slugger av en studie, som viser overdrivelse av temperaturnivå etter inkludering av ikke-valide stasjoner:

Starting from a set of 6190 meteorological stations we are choosing 6130 of them and only for Northern Hemisphere we are computing average values for absolute annual Mean, Minimum, Q1, Median, Q3,Maximum temperature plus their standard deviations for years 1800â??2013, while we use 4887 stations and 389 467 rows of complete yearly data. The data quality and the seasonal bias indices are defined and used in order to evaluate our dataset. After the year 1969 the data quality is monotonically decreasing while the seasonal bias is positive in most of the cases.


Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062803/abstract

Denne studien viser at det er foretatt omfattende manipulasjoner av måledata for regionen man undersøkte, jfr. abstract:

Observations from the main mountain climate station network in the western United States (US) suggest that higher elevations are warming faster than lower elevations. This has led to the assumption that elevation-dependent warming is prevalent throughout the region with impacts to water resources and ecosystem services. Here, we critically evaluate this networkâ??s temperature observations and show that extreme warming observed at higher elevations is the result of systematic artifacts and not climatic conditions. With artifacts removed, the networkâ??s 1991â??2012 minimum temperature trend decreases from +1.16 °C decade−1 to +0.106 °C decade−1 and is statistically indistinguishable from lower elevation trends. Moreover, longer-term widely used gridded climate products propagate the spurious temperature trend, thereby amplifying 1981â??2012 western US elevation-dependent warming by +217 to +562%. In the context of a warming climate, this artificial amplification of mountain climate trends has likely compromised our ability to accurately attribute climate change impacts across the mountainous western US.


An Integrated Procedure to Determine a Reference Station Network for Evaluating and Adjusting Urban Bias in Surface Air Temperature Data

Link: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0295.1?af=R&utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

Her er et typisk empirisk eksempel på store UHI-feilkilder for bakkebaserte målestasjoner som ikke er hensyntatt i de globale snittgrafene IPCC bruker:

The trend of surface air temperature (SAT) is a critical indicator to climate change in varied spatial scales. Due to urbanization effects, however, the current SAT records of many urban stations can hardly meet the demands of the studies. Evaluation and adjustment of the urbanization effects on the SAT trends are needed, which requires an objective selection of reference (rural) stations. � The results showed a highly significant urbanization effect of 0.074°C/10yr and urbanization contribution of 24.9% for the national stations of mainland China for the time period 1961-2004
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New urban heat island study shows surprising variation in air temperatures across Twin Cities

Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/11/151118131726.htm

Enda en påvisning av UHI-feilkilder:

Temperatures in the urban core of Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington average 2 °F higher in summer than in surrounding areas. The differential spiked as much as 9 °F higher during a heat wave in July 2012. Urban heat island effect is stronger at night in summer and during the day in winter. In urban areas during the winter when snow cover is less pervasive, temperatures are higher than rural areas in the daytime by an average of 2 °F.
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Mapping urban heat islands of arctic cities using combined data on field measurements and satellite images based on the example of the city of Apatity (Murmansk Oblast)

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134%2FS000143381509011X#/page-1

Enda et eksempel på UHI-feilkilde:

This article presents the results of a study of the urban heat island (UHI) in the city of Apatity [Russian Arctic] during winter that were obtained according to the data of field meteorological measurements and satellite images. Calculations of the surface layer temperature have been made based on the surface temperature data obtained from satellite images. � As a result of the analysis of temperature fields, an intensive heat island (up to 3.2°C) has been identified that was estimated based on the underlying surface temperature, and its mean intensity over the observation period significantly exceeds the representative data for European cities in winter. It has also been established that the air temperature calculated according to the MODIS data is systematically higher under winter conditions than the air temperature from direct measurement data.
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Interdecadal variations and trends of the Urban Heat Island in Athens (Greece) and its response to heat waves

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809515000988

Denne studien viser at UHI-effekt utgjør omtrent halvparten av Atens oppvarming i perioden:

The study explores the interdecadal and seasonal variability of the urban heat island (UHI) intensity in the city of Athens. Daily air temperature data from a set of urban and surrounding non urban stations over the period 1970â??2004 were used. Nighttime and daytime heat island revealed different characteristics as regards the mean amplitude, seasonal variability and temporal variation and trends. The difference of the annual mean air temperature between urban and rural stations exhibited a progressive statistically significant increase over the studied period, with rates equal to + 0.2 °C/decade. A gradual and constant increase of the daytime UHI intensity was detected, in contrast to the nighttime UHI intensity which increases only in summer, after the mid 1980s.


Dette som noen få eksempler på en stor mengde ny forskning innenfor dette temaet bare siste året.

[Telehiv]

Her har jeg ikke sett nødvendigheten for å legge ut så mange flere studier, da storparten uansett beskriver omtrent de samme forholdene: Et tilbakevendende poeng rundt måledataproblematikken er som kjent kritikken rundt at ulike (interesse-)grupper beholder eller endrer infiserte data iht. i hvor stor grad de tjener deres ulike klimapolitiske holdninger eller ikke.

Utlagt: Historiske og bakkebaserte mÃ¥ledatasett fra bÃ¥de luft og sjø har generelt store tolkningsrom, og kan friste mer til "taktisk" bruk i modeller enn godt er av og til. Her gjør jeg ikke noen forskjell pÃ¥ hvilke parter vi snakker om, her kan alle være tyver pÃ¥ agitatorenes marked.