Skrevet av Emne: Klimasensitivitet - skeptikere  (Lest 980 ganger)

Emeritus

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Klimasensitivitet - skeptikere
« på: 18.06.2015, 20:36:11 »
Jeg har gjennom ulike kilder forsøkt å finne ut hva ulike skeptikere har uttalt om klimasensitivitet. Altså ikke om AGW - teorien har noe for seg, men om tilførsel av en dobling av CO2 i forhold til preindustrielt nivå, vil lede til 3 - 4 C økning i gjennomsnittstemperaturen som IPCC forfekter, som jeg har antydet tidligere; ingen av de aktuelle synes å mene at CO2 ikke varmer kloden, men mener IPCC overdriver;

Lindzen  - 1  - http://judithcurry.com/2012/04/04/lindzen-et-al-response-and-parry/
Spencer - 1,3 - http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/11/our-new-paper-el-nino-warming-reduces-climate-sensitivity-to-1-3-deg-c/
Scafetta   1,5 - http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Blog-Nicola-Scafetta-def.pdf
Levis and Crok -1,75 - http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/05/lewis-and-crok-climate-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-models-suggest/
Monckton, Soon  -1 - http://www.scibull.com:8080/EN/abstract/abstract509579.shtml





« Siste redigering: 18.06.2015, 20:40:51 av Emeritus »

PetterT

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Sv: Klimasensitivitet - skeptikere
« Svar #1 på: 11.07.2017, 11:36:54 »
"Lukewarmers" som tror på 33 K ufysiske "greenhouse gas back radiation" har denne forklaring på at klimasensitiviteten ikke kan overskride en "feedback fraction" på 0,11.

Briggs & Monckton her:
To Put America First Is To Put Our Planet’s Climate First — With Critical Updates
http://wmbriggs.com/post/22050/

There is a natural greenhouse effect, which drives the difference of 33 K between the mean emission temperature of the Earth (255 K) and the mean surface temperature (288 K). That greenhouse effect comprises partly the consequence of forcings and partly the consequence of feedbacks. Assume ad argumentum (and per impossibile) that the 33 K natural greenhouse effect comprises entirely feedbacks.
You will agree, I think, that the feedbacks acting on today’s climate (before any perturbation by us) cannot by any stretch of the imagination exceed the entire natural greenhouse effect, for otherwise they would be by some magical process materially influencing the Sun itself. Accordingly, elementary feedback theory stipulates that the feedback fraction f, which is the fraction of today’s 288 K surface temperature that is fed back, cannot exceed 33/288, or 0.11, and it is most unlikely to be this large.
IPCC, however, says reference warming ΔTs in response to doubled CO2 before feedbacks will be 1.2 K, but that equilibrium warming ΔT after feedbacks will fall on [1.5, 4.5] K, implying that its feedback fraction f = (1 – ΔTs/ΔT) will fall on [0.23, 0.74]. But that interval is between twice and seven times the absolute maximum possible value of f, and two orders of magnitude greater than any realistic value.
Det er tanken som teller :-)