Et gjensyn med konsensusen

Started by Baseballstick, 31.07.2014, 13:02:39

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QuoteThe facts of the original survey, from which the famous 97 percent â??consensusâ?? was derived, are as follows:

The online survey was conducted in 2008 and contained â??up to nine questionsâ?. The 97 percent figure was based upon the answers to two of those questions.

10,257 individuals were invited to participate in the survey. These individuals represented a â??broad range of Earth scientistsâ?. Of the 3146 people who actually completed the survey, just 79 of them â?? by the standards of the survey â?? were published experts in the field of climate science.

The first of the two questions focused on was â??When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?â? Hardly a very scientific question; the mere inclusion of the word â??generallyâ? immediately strips this particular question of any scientific credential. In answer to this question, 90 percent of respondents answered â??risenâ?. If one were to go into the street and ask ordinary Americans, who express a belief in global warming, how much the Earthâ??s temperature has risen over the past 100 years, most of the answers will range wildly from six or seven degrees to thirty degrees or more. The actual increase is in dispute, depending on which source one chooses to believe, and ranges â?? generally â?? from 0.5 to 1.2 degrees.

The second question honed in on to produce the 97 percent â??consensusâ??, was â??Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?â? Again; hardly a scientific question. â??Do you thinkâ?¦â? and â??significant contributing factorâ? are both completely unquantifiable terms. Of the few survey participants who could actually claim to be â??climate scientistsâ?, 76 of 79 answered â??risenâ? to the first question and 75 out of 77 answered â??yesâ? to the second.

It turns out, therefore, that the famous 97 percent â??consensusâ?? on global warming is based upon nothing more than the opinions of 76 â?? or 75 â?? people and the answers that they gave to two unscientific and unspecific questions in an online survey. Meanwhile, there are numerous studies and surveys that show a large number of scientists do not believe that human activity contributes significantly to climate change. One could, arguably, deconstruct any of these studies in a similar fashion, but to do so would be highly disingenuous; it would merely prove that global warming believers are willing to claim that â??the science is settledâ?, based upon the opinions of 76 people, whilst dismissing the opinions of a far greater number who disagree.

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Klimatilsynet har en utmerket post om denne første 97-prosents undersøkelsen i 2011, LINK.

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