Author Topic: Pålitelig framtidsforskning? Earth Day 1970 tok feil i alle katastrofevarsler  (Read 176 times)

Telehiv

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Ron Stein har gjort opp status for Earth Hour 1970, og funnet at alle miljøkatastrofevarsler - avgitt like skråsikkert den gangen som dagens klimaalarmisme - har feilet på alle vesentlige punkter. Skissert litt humoristisk i denne figuren:



Dagens varmister benekter at en rekke 70-talls klimaframskrivere (ikke minst de som forfattet Earth Day 1970) trodde på ny istid
Men: Siden vi er på et klimaforum, så var en av de "beste" spådommene fra den gangen i 1970 etter et par skikkelig kalde tiår at ny istid var på vei "as earth has been cooling since 1950 and the temperature will be 11 degrees cooler by the year 2000”.
Joda. Se punktet mer konkret angitt under pkt. 13 nedenfor. Nådig nok stopper vi listingen der.

Link: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/22/earthday-at-50-none-of-the-eco-doomsday-predictions-have-come-true/

Artikkelen lister ellers opp noen punkter som viser hvor feil man tok i 1970:

1. “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”  — Harvard biologist George Wald

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” — Washington University biologist Barry Commoner

3. “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.” — New York Times editorial

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” — Paul Ehrlich

6. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day

7. “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter

8. “In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” — Life magazine

9. “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

10. “Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” — Paul Ehrlich

11. “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

12. “[One] theory assumes that the earth’s cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun’s heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” — Newsweek magazine

13. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” — Kenneth Watt


Og så tenker man; er det noen grunn til at ikke dagens like banale klimaframskrivnings-alarmisme kommer til å se like forfeilet ut om 50 år?
« Last Edit: 23.04.2020, 12:24:20 by Telehiv »

Telehiv

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Smithsonian Magazine gjorde et forsøk allerede i 2016 på å bortforklare at fordi om man tok så feil for 50 år siden, så betyr ikke det dagens (klima)alarmister tar like mye feil nå. Som de sier i artikkelingressen:

"Half a century ago, scientists and activists predicted utter doom for the planet. That hasn’t happened yet, but it’s nothing to cheer about".

Ja, ikke sant? Selv om man tok dundrende feil er det alltid nye oppsiktsvekkende katastrofetema å vegetere på.
Alle ambisiøse forskere som er avhengige av å plukke de rette finansieringstrendene for å framstå suksessfulle, vet dette. Jeg var selv en del av dette i mange år. Men er redelig nok til å innrømme det. Som det heter; "jeg inviterer herved alle andre i samme kategori til å gjøre det samme".

Artikkelen ender ikke veldig overraskende med dette:

"The truth is more complicated. Climate change won’t destroy the planet, although it will change the environment we’re accustomed to, in ways we can’t predict and with possibly dire consequences. And weaponizing “failed predictions” of the past to justify leaving the climate problem to the market is deceptive. If we don’t act because a previous prediction “failed,” we face an array of human suffering, which will hit the poorest and disadvantaged the hardest."

Som jeg skulle sagt det selv i mine glansdager som forsker.

Se hele artikkelen her: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-didnt-first-earth-days-predictions-come-true-its-complicated-180958820/


Som vi ser, ikke store forskjellen på den tidens alarmisme-supportere og dagens streikende skoleelever - annet enn at de er 10 år eldre og betydelig kulere




« Last Edit: 23.04.2020, 12:07:35 by Telehiv »

ConTrari1

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Åjoda. Det er en som røyker der!!

Telehiv

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Åjoda. Det er en som røyker der!!

ConTrari1,
igjen: You just made my day!

PS: Kom også til å tenke: Hva er det'n røyker, egentlig?! Ser litt Frederic Hauge-aktig ut, spør du meg :-)