Author Topic: Ny solsyklusforskning passer godt med historiske klimaperioder  (Read 274 times)

Telehiv

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Det er kommet en del nye artikler om forholdet mellom solsykluser og global temperatur, altså det IPCC i alle år har prøvd å nedtone fordi det ikke passer med CO2-narrativet.
IPCC-lojale Egorova et al., 2018 skriver for eksempel i artikkelen Revised historical solar irradiance forcing at forskningen spriker rundt solens betydning. Ikke så rart når vi vet at IPCC-lojal forskning typisk prøver å nedtone solens betydning, herunder tone ned tydelige historiske perioder (f.eks. den lille istid med Michael Mann et als notoriske forsøk på utflating/oppskriving, og tilsvarende nedskrivninger av varm middelalder, den varme mellomkrigstiden, osv.) der ærligere solforskere sier at solen har vært "kald" eller "varm" analogt med jordens temperatur.

Men Egorova et 2018 røyklegger så godt de kan, ikke overraskende også med "konsensus" som støttehjul:
"â??There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate.â?

Dette gjenkjenner vi raskt som klassisk IPCC-retorikk gjentatt mange ganger tidligere, satt opp for å tåkelegge ethvert forsøk på å svekke CO2-ets dominante vektlegging i varmehypotesen og tilsvarende nedskrive solens betydning for historiske klimaperioder.

Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.00287.pdf

Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018
er imidlertid ikke i folden for knefall for IPCC, og skriver at "The Little Ice Age was 1.0â??1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO".

Abstract
We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623â??2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873â??2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659â??2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850â??2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earthâ??s angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0â??1.5 °C cooler than the 1950â??1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.
 
Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4122-6

FÃ¥r vi en kald klimaperiode i 2030-2050?
Mørner 2018 har på basis av forventede solmønstre i tiårene framover prognostisert en kald klimaperiode i 2030-2050, som også passer godt med de siste hundreårenes 30/60-års sykluser. Han skriver:
â??The concept of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2 is compared to the concept of a natural global warming (NGW) driven by solar variability. The application of the AGW concept only rests on models, whilst the NGW concept rests on multiple observational and evidence-based facts. â?¦ Several scientists (e.g. [Landscheidt, 2003] [Charvátová, 2009] [Mörner, 2010] [ Mörner, 2015] [Abdussamatov, 2016]) have shown that we, in fact, are approaching a New Grand Solar Minimum in about 2030-2050. In analogy with the documented climate conditions during the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima, we may expect the return of a New Little Ice Age as illustrated in Figure 5.â?

Mørners figur for dette:


Link: https://file.scirp.org/pdf/VP_2018101714453677.pdf


IPCC og undertrykkingen av solens betydning sliter mer og mer mot nyere, uavhengig forskning
IPCC sliter altså stadig mer med å klare å undertrykke solforskningens "irriterende" påvisninger, ikke minst det stadig mer aksepterte historiske faktum at jorden har vært kaldere i perioder med lav solaktivitet, og varmere i perioder med høy solaktivitet. Nylige studier på dette er Ukhvatkina et al., 2018 ( https://www.clim-past.net/14/57/2018/cp-14-57-2018.pdf ), Oliva et al., 2018 ( http://static-m.meteo.cat/wordpressweb/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/27071825/Oliva-et-al-2018.pdf ), Collet and Schuh, 2018, og Zherebtsov et al., 2018 ( https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0016793217060147 ).

Ukhvatkina et al., 2018 skriver for eksempel:
â??It is well known that cold and warm periods of the climate are correlated with intensive solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period), while decreases in temperature occur during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age; Lean and Rind, 1999; Bond et al., 2001). â?¦ . Long cold periods from 1643 to 1667 and from 1675 to 1690 that were revealed for another territory (Lyu et al., 2016; Wilson et al., 2016) coincided with the Maunder Minimum (1645â??1715), an interval of decreased solar irradiance (Bard et al., 2000). The coldest year in this study (1662) was revealed in this period too. The Dalton minimum period centered in 1810 is also notable.â?

Oliva et al., 2018 skriver:
â??Cold period during 1645â??1706 (Maunder solar minimum).  Cold period during 1810â??1838 (Dalton solar minimum).  Warm period during the mid-20th and 21st centuries (modern solar maximum).  LIA  [Little Ice Age] was characterized by a cold phase having lower annual and summer temperatures relative to the long-term mean, consistent with the solar minima. â?¦ The record shows rapid cooling since the start of the Spörer Minimum, which intensified during the Maunder Minimum (with the lowest estimated temperature being 2 °C lower than the recent average). A later increase in the temperature and another slight cooling probably coincided with the Dalton Minimum. Particularly cold winters occurred during the MCA (from 1090 to 1179), during the LIA onset (1350) and from the late 15th to early 16th centuries. Winter temperatures would have been approximately 0.5 °C lower during the LIA (1500â??1900) than during the 20th century. â?¦ [T]he Maunder Minimum coincided with a cold period from 1645 to 1706, and the Dalton Minimum (1796â??1830) is correlated with a cold stage spanning the years from 1810 to 1838. Four warm periods (1626â??1637, 1800â??1809, 1845â??1859, and 1986â??2012) coincided with periods of increased solar activity.â?


Vi kan avslutte med Abdussamatov-2012, som viser de nevnte sammenfall mellom sol og klimasykluser:


« Last Edit: 27.12.2018, 13:01:49 by Telehiv »

Telehiv

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Mørners prognose om kaldere periode fra 2030 får støtte hos McCrann et al., 2018, og som også ser samsvar med de velkjente 60-års syklusene, jfr.:

â??The effect of the Sunâ??s activity on Earthâ??s climate has been identified since the 1800s. However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earthâ??s climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level. This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sunâ??s activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels. In agreement with many studies that have identified a 60-year cycle in the variation of Earthâ??s temperature, it is expected that surface temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040.â?

Link: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bandita_Mainali2/publication/325012781_Sea_Levels_Rise_In_A_Changing_Climate/links/5af17cf4458515c2837550fc/Sea-Levels-Rise-In-A-Changing-Climate.pdf